Commercial property research and viewpoints

Commercial property values to fall 11 percent in response to Brexit


UK commercial property prices will fall by a double digit percentage over the next six months, according to new research by property consultancy Lambert Smith Hampton. The latest edition of the company’s quarterly UK Investment Transactions report predicts that market uncertainty generated by the UK’s decision to leave the EU will lead to an 11% fall in capital values by the end of 2016.

The authors find that pricing started to fall in advance of the EU referendum, with average transaction yields rising by 15 basis points between April and June – the first time this has happened for two years.

The report also reveals that investment activity remained subdued in the run-up to the referendum, with transaction volumes totalling £9.8 billion during the second quarter of 2016 - down 18% on the previous quarter, 45% below the same period last year, and 20% short of the five-year average. The main drag on overall activity was the alternatives sectors (which includes healthcare, student housing and the private rented sector), where volume of £1.2 billion was 74% lower than in the same period in 2015.

Having been highly acquisitive over the past two years, UK institutional investors were net sellers of UK property in the second quarter of the year, divesting £1.0 billion of commercial property assets. However, overseas buyers and quoted companies remained net buyers of UK property during the quarter.

Download the report to find out more.

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