The latest edition of the company’s quarterly UK Investment Transactions report predicts that market uncertainty generated by the UK’s decision to leave the EU will lead to an 11% fall in capital values by the end of 2016.
The authors find that pricing started to fall in advance of the EU referendum, with average transaction yields rising by 15 basis points between April and June – the first time this has happened for two years.
The report also reveals that investment activity remained subdued in the run-up to the referendum, with transaction volumes totalling £9.8 billion during the second quarter of 2016 - down 18% on the previous quarter, 45% below the same period last year, and 20% short of the five-year average. The main drag on overall activity was the alternatives sectors (which includes healthcare, student housing and the private rented sector), where volume of £1.2 billion was 74% lower than in the same period in 2015.
Having been highly acquisitive over the past two years, UK institutional investors were net sellers of UK property in the second quarter of the year, divesting £1.0 billion of commercial property assets. However, overseas buyers and quoted companies remained net buyers of UK property during the quarter.
Ezra Nahome, CEO of Lambert Smith Hampton, said: “We’re getting greater clarity about the outlook for UK commercial property with every passing week, and starting to see investors revert back to more rational behaviour after a brief period of heightened uncertainty. It’s a stretch to say that the market is returning to normal, but cooler heads have begun to return.
“The fall in values that we forecast for the remainder of the year is magnified by our position in the investment cycle. Values have been stretched across a number of sectors for a while, especially in Central London, so the referendum result has arguably accelerated the return to fundamentals that would have happened anyway.
“This fall in values, coupled with the devaluation of Sterling and the swift appointment of a new Prime Minister, makes UK commercial property an attractive proposition for overseas investors, and we expect them to be active buyers during the second half of the year. British-based institutional investors are likely to continue to be net sellers for the remainder of 2016.
“There will be winners and losers from this. Values for well located properties with long leases will hold up well, perhaps even increasing if monetary policy is loosened further. Secondary assets in the more exposed sectors are likely to see the largest price adjustments, exacerbated by increased caution among lenders. The regions may also outperform London over the short to medium term both in terms of investment and development until we have a better understanding of the capital’s future outside of the EU.
“Beyond 2016, much will depend on what the details of a Brexit ultimately looks like. UK property is fundamentally in a much stronger position than it was in 2008 and there is much to be confident about in the long term. Investors who can look beyond the immediate uncertainty will be well placed to benefit from what remains an attractive asset class.”